Operation Myth Buster

Myth 1: The Sky is Falling. If the truth be told, housing has always been a very cyclical business. In the mid-1970s and early 1980s and 1990s, housing production and sales dropped by more than 60 percent in a matter of months. During those cycles, we confronted and overcame many of the same problems we face today – large numbers of unsold homes, skeptical and reluctant consumers, tight credit markets and shortages of money for certain borrowers, declining home values, and prospective buyers who had difficulty selling their existing homes. The important thing to remember is that over time the market corrected and we rebounded to production and sales levels that beat or matched the records of the previous cycle. The message is that housing is a very tough and resilient industry. We will be back – stronger and better than before.

Myth 2: There’s No Mortgage Money. If you believed the headlines or the endless drum beat about subprime lending on cable television news, you would think that the pot of mortgage money has dried up completely. Nonsense! The vast majority of our buyers are seeking conventional, conforming mortgages at or below $417,000. These loans are purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and have the implicit guarantee of the federal government. While underwriting standards may be tighter for all loans, credit-worthy home buyers should have no problems in finding conventional, conforming mortgages at very attractive rates – slightly above 6 percent for fixed rate, 30-year loans. And with the latest moves by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and increase liquidity, the availability of money for jumbo loans has also improved for credit-worthy borrowers, although rates on those loans are about one percentage point above conforming loan rates and down payment requirements are higher. Nonetheless, getting the word out that mortgage money is available at a very attractive price for credit-worthy borrowers is critical to boosting consumer confidence and traffic of prospective customers.

Myth 3: Foreclosure Rates Are Skyrocketing. While foreclosure rates have increased in the past year, almost all American home owners are making their mortgage payments on time and are in no danger of losing their homes. Most foreclosures are concentrated in the once super-heated markets in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada, and the upper Midwest states of Michigan, Ohio and Indiana, which have been hit hard by job losses, plant closings and depressed local economies. In fact, in 34 states the foreclosure rate actually declined last month. We are concerned about the two million subprime loans that are due to reset over the next two years. That’s a major problem that needs to be dealt with. But it’s important to remember that 37 percent of all single-family homes are owned debt free – without any mortgage – and home owners nationwide have built up more than $11 trillion in equity that provides a good cushion against any decline in values. In addition, 97 percent of prime borrowers – the bulk of the market – are up-to-date on their mortgage payments. Also, a high number of defaults on loans to date have been among speculators or investors who were looking for quick profits and subsequently walked away from their investments when the housing market cooled.

Myth 4: Home Values Are in a Free-Fall with No Bottom in Sight. Except for about 30 or so high-flying metro markets where home values doubled in four or five years, the correction in home values has been relatively modest. Over time, home values will stabilize and then edge upward with the next recovery. To argue that home values will continue to decline and will never recover, someone has to make a convincing argument that it will cost less to build a new home five years from now than it does today. That’s not going to happen.

The talking points and other information we link to below refute these four myths and other inaccuracies that are circulating in local and national media circuits.

Links to Talking Points and Other Background Information

Media talking points on housing market conditions, credit crunch problems and what the NAHB is doing to help ease the liquidity situation in the mortgage market. This set of talking points is designed for the vast majority of state and local HBAs across the country.

Media talking points designed for the economically depressed states of the upper Midwest, particularly Michigan, Ohio and Indiana.

Media talking points on the credit crunch and housing market conditions specifically tailored to the once super-heated states of Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada.

General talking points on why now is a good time to buy a home. This set of talking points can be used in all housing markets.

Op-Ed Article: Today’s Housing Market Offers Unique Opportunities for Home Buyers

Op-Ed Article: Buying a New Home is Not an Impossible Dream

Op-Ed Article: A Down Market Offers Some Surprising Home Buying Advantages

The NAHB-Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index

Residential Building Permits by Metro Area

OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) house price statistics. This is a PDF file of the full quarterly report.

Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices. This is a PDF file of the monthly press release.

Census Projections: Change in total population for regions, divisions and states from 2000 to 2030.